Related IN Number(s) : 2005-348Background/Justification :(S//NF) Analysts in CIA’s Office of Russian and European Analysis (OREA) closely watchedthe Oct 9th and Oct 16th Socialist primaries and will be closely monitoring the April 22nd andMay 6th 2012 Presidential elections. Of particular interest is President Sarkozy, the SocialistParty (PS), and other potential candidate’s plans and intentions for these elections. Analystsassess that the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the current ruling party, is not assured ofwinning the presidential election and, as a result, analysts are interested in the electoral strategyof the non-ruling parties listed below. Additional information on these topics will help analystsassess, and prepare key US policymakers for, the post-election French political landscape andthe potential impact on US-France relations.Guidance for UCS :(C//NF) ██████████ please contact ██████████ CIA/DI Office of CollectionStrategies and Analysis (CSAA), IC E-Mail ██████████@cia.ic.gov, NSTS phone 935-████.(S//NF) These requirements are NOFORN due to Friends-on-Friends sensitivities.(S//NF) French political parties and persons of interest include:A. (S//NF) Socialist Party (PS)B. (S//NF) National Front (FN)C. (S//NF) Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)D. (S//NF) Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK)E. (S//NF) Nicolas SarkozyF. (S//NF) Martine AubryG. (S//NF) Francois HollandeH. (S//NF) Marine Le Pen
EI : A
EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN
Originator EEI Classification : SECRET//NOFORN
EEI Title : (S//NF) Sarkozy and Contenders Strategic Election Plans
1. (S//NF) Report on deliberations by Sarkozy, or other high level government officials
regarding the presidential candidates in the 2012 election.
2. (S//NF) Report efforts by Sarkozy, the Socialist party, or others to manage the 2012
A. (S//NF) Discussions that indicate Sarkozy’s level of confidence in his ability to contest the
B. (S//NF) Attempts to pass guidance or directives to parties or individuals on supporting
activities or initiatives.
C. (S//NF) How Sarkozy and his advisors interact.
3. (S//NF) Report any discussions regarding guidance from Sarkozy or Martine Aubry, Francois
Hollande, or Dominique Strauss-Kahn on the upcoming elections.
SIGINT sub-discipline(s) : COMINT
The following table is classified: SECRET//NOFORN
A DIP France X Key 9
Reporting Criteria :
Report Type Delivery Mechanism Reporting Timeline
EGRAM Electrical Message 72 Hours After
PROFORMA Datalinks :
Validation Type: FNV
Last Status Change Levy Date Levied Version
2011/11/17 13:22Z 2011/11/17 13:22Z 1
Secure : 933-████
INMG Primary Lead Alternate Lead Editor
Secure : 935-████
Secure : 937-████
Secure : 561-████
Secure : 561-████
C.S.M. Point of Contact